Chapter 9: Forecasting the
long term
- 9/1 Cycles versus long term trends: forecasting copper prices
- 9/1/1 Forecasting IBM's sales
- 9/2 Long term mega economic trends
- 9/2/1 Cycles of various durations and depths
- 9/2/2 Implications of extrapolating long term trends
- 9/3 Analogies
- 9/3/1 The Information versus the Industrial Revolution
- 9/3/2 Five major inventions of the Industrial Revolution and their analogs
- 9/4 Scenario building
- 9/4/1 Businesses: gaining and/or maintaining competitive advantages
- 9/4/2 Jobs, work, and leisure time
- 9/4/3 Physical versus tele-interactions: extent and speed of acceptance
- References and selected bibliography
- Exercises
Back to outline of contents.