Chapter 2: Basic Forecasting Tools

2/1  Time series and cross-sectional data

2/2  Graphical summaries

2/2/1  Time plots and time series patterns

2/2/2  Seasonal plots

2/2/3  Scatterplots

2/3  Numerical summaries

2/3/1  Univariate statistics

2/3/2  Bivariate statistics

2/3/3  Autocorrelation

2/4  Measuring forecast accuracy

2/4/1  Standard statistical measures

2/4/2  Out-of-sample accuracy measurement

2/4/3  Comparing forecast methods

2/4/4  Theil's U-statistic

2/4/5  ACF of forecast error

2/5  Prediction intervals

2/6  Least squares estimates

2/6/1  Discovering and describing relationships

2/7  Transformations and adjustments

2/7/1  Mathematical transformations

2/7/2  Calendar adjustments

2/7/3  Adjustments for inflation and population changes

Appendixes

2-A  Notation for quantitative forecasting

2-B  Summation sign S

References and selected bibliography

Exercises